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STRATEGIES
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Draw Poker StrategyWhen it comes to Poker strategy, there are
a few things to get straight right off the top. You could call these the
Golden Rules of Poker 'cause they apply to pretty much any Poker game
you're likely to play:
- Don't play cash poor: as a general rule you should start with 40-50
times the table limit.
- If you've got nothing in your hand, get out.
- If you've got a cinch hand, make them pay to see it.
- If they've got you beat, fold.
- The goal is to beat the other players, not have the highest hand. If
everyone else folds, you take the pot.
- Don't try to beat a better player: if you're lucky, you'll win
small; if you're not, you'll lose big.
- There's an even chance that you won't better your opening
hand.
When it comes to Draw Poker Strategy we begin by
considering the rank of the winning hands. In the Rules of Draw Poker, we
introduced the 5-card hands and their ranking. Here's some idea of the
odds on receiving those hands on the opening deal:
Chances of being dealt
in the
original 5 cards |
| Royal Flush
| 1 in
| 650,000
|
| Straight Flush
| 1 in
| 72,200
|
| Four of a Kind
| 1 in
| 4,200 |
| Full House
| 1 in |
700 |
| Flush
| 1 in |
510 |
| Straight
| 1 in |
250 |
| Three of a Kind
| 1 in |
48 |
| Two Pair
| 1 in |
21 |
| One Pair
| 1 in |
2.4 |
| No Pair
| 1 in |
2 |
Based on these chances of
receiving an opening hand, there are a few things you can immediately
conclude:
- the more players at the table, the greater the chance that one or
more players has a Pair, for example. In other words...
- the more players at the table, the lower the relative value of the
lesser ranked hands.
- if you haven't got a Pair or better, or four cards to a Flush or
Straight, Fold immediately.
Perhaps this last bit of advice needs
some elaboration. What it comes down to is this: if you hold nothing in
the opener your chances of improving and beating the other players are too
slim. Of course this means that you'll fold most of your opening hands.
Welcome to Draw Poker.
So let's assume you've got a little
something to build on. Every beginning player wants to know whether they
should hold a kicker and a Pair, or just the Pair. Same with Trips. As
you'll see in the following, the odds almost always favor tossing the
kicker:
|
| Chances of
making: |
| Any improvement |
Two Pair |
Three of a Kind |
Full House |
Four of a Kind |
| Drawing three cards to a Pair |
1 in 2.5 |
1 in 5 |
1 in 8 |
1 in 97 |
1 in 360 |
| Drawing two to a Pair with kicker |
1 in 3 |
1 in 5 |
1 in 12 |
1 in 120 |
1 in 1100 |
| Drawing two to Three of a Kind |
1 in 8.5 |
-- |
-- |
1 in 15.5 |
1 in 22.5 |
| Drawing one to Three of a Kind with kicker |
1 in 11 |
-- |
-- |
1 in 15 |
1 in 46 |
Needless to say, the better your
opener, the better your chances of improving it. But forget about trying
to build something out of a three card Flush or Straight: your odds are 1
in 23 and 1 in 150 respectively. It's highly unlikely that the pot would
ever justify that kind of risk.
On the upside, observe the
following chances if you hold four cards to build on:
|
| Chances
of
completion: |
When drawing
one card to:
| Four cards of a Flush
| 1 in 4.5
|
| Straight open at both ends
| 1 in 5
|
| Straight open at one end
| 1 in 11
|
| Straight open on the inside
| 1 in 11
|
| Straight Flush open at both ends
| 1 in 23
|
| Straight Flush open at one end
| 1 in 46
|
| Straight Flush open on the inside
| 1 in 46 |
In the end, it's these odds that
must advise you on your Poker betting decisions. If you've got a four-card
Flush and it'll cost you $20 to stay in, the question is "yes or
no"?
First question: what are your chances of completion on the
draw? 1 in 4.5 So if you're going to stay in, that pot better pay you $90
or better (4.5 x $20), after you deduct your ante and bets thus far.
Anything else is blind faith in beating the odds and the sidelines are
full of players who tried that as their betting policy. Look where it got
them.
Of course, Poker wouldn't be Poker if that was all there was
to it. Bluffing, intimidation, body language and all the rest of it come
into the game if you're playing your opponents across a table instead of
across cyberspace. If that's your game I suggest you do some serious
reading.
There are many, many books on the Poker subject and your
first tough choice will be picking one. But remember, Poker has been
around a long time. Anyone that tries to sell you a "hot new strategy" is
beating you at the book counter, not the Poker table. Go with the
pros.
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